This team just wasn't ready to win it all yet, but still a very good all-around team with a sneaky productive defense. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? An 11-5 record was good enough for first place in the AFC East, yet New England was 5-5 through 10 games. 19. Michael Strahan and Keith Hamilton combined for 19.5 sacks, and the team had 44 total. The Cardinals added more playmakers to surround Murray this offseason with A.J. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. Star quarterback Phil Simms was injured during the playoffs, no player had more than 30 catches during the regular season and the team was carried by a great defense that allowed only 13.2 points per game. The NFL didn't have a full season due to a strike, so it is hard to put a 72 team ahead of others. Here's everything we know, QB Young 5-10 1/8, 204 pounds at NFL combine, Sources: Patriots tell QB Hoyer he's being cut, Horns' Robinson: Versatility worthy of early pick, Jones: Not fixated on Cowboys' drought, just '23, Sources: Raiders plan franchise tag for Jacobs, WR Addison to Steelers' Pickett: 'Come get me', Wolverines' Turner wows with 4.26 40 at combine, Top QB prospect Levis eager to unleash 'cannon', Everything you need to know about Geno Smith's contract negotiations. Green and Rondale Moore at wide receiver. 1 pick, Ex-Patriots star McGinest facing eight years in prison, Commanders rip 'blatantly false' team sale report, Last Super Bowl appearance: 2016 (Super Bowl 50), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2017 (Super Bowl LI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1990 (Super Bowl XXIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1995 (Super Bowl XXIX), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1977 (Super Bowl XI), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2009 (Super Bowl XLIII), Last Super Bowl appearance: 2000 (Super Bowl XXXIV), Last Super Bowl appearance: 1994 (Super Bowl XXVIII). It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) We've been projecting preseason chances to get the top draft picks only since 2018, but no team has entered the year more likely to walk away from the No. ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, theres a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. Give them five years to become a dynasty. This was the first of the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in the 90s. Osi Umenyiora was the team's only starting Pro Bowler and the Giants trailed in every postseason game they played. Bradshaw would go on to complete just 67 passes for 785 yards, seven touchdowns and eight interceptions in his limited action. Check out the full strength of schedule rankings here. ODonnell set Larry Browns family up for life with his dreadful performance. Denver came in with a historically good offense. 32. The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. The Patriots dynasty started with a massive upset that ended with a Tom Brady game-winning drive and clutch kick by Adam Vinatieri. 3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5. The aforementioned Dilfer-led passing game ranked only 23rd in the regular season (in fairness to Dilfer, he did replace Tony Banks midway through the year), and the only time the chains seemed to move was when rookie Jamal Lewis barreled forward for three or four yards. That was by design. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more, FOX SPORTS, SPEED, SPEED.COM & 2023 Fox Media LLC and Fox Sports Interactive Media, LLC. We cant put a Super Bowl featuring Rex Grossman too high on the list, but Peyton Manning winning his first ring salvages this one. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. A 142 season, and the best offense in the league led by Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce. The universe wont let the Vikings back in the Super Bowl because all of the ones they made in the 70s ended up being unwatchable. New York didnt want Buffalos explosive offense on the field, so it grinded out the clock on the ground and ended up winning the time of possession battle by about 20 minutes. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but theyd need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division., 21. A.J. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. Same goes for this one. The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. 3 overall pick Trey Lance entering the season. Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. Herbert has immensely changed the fortunes of a franchise that mired in mediocrity during Philip Rivers' final years. They also secured the first ring in franchise history. Tennessee Titans +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total), Probably the favorites in the division given the Colts' injuries, but Im leery of taking the bait. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. Will head coach Zac Taylor actually commit to the run and take the pressure off of Burrow? The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first conference championship game appearance since 1993 while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. A year before perfection. Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). The Chargers got the last of the three talented quarterbacks from the 2020 draft class, and possibly the best in Justin Herbert -- the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. that each ranks in the top 10. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). It took just seven wins for Washington to top the NFC East last season, and FPI still doesn't think much of the division a year later. But the rest of the roster is important, too. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. Both halves of this one were capped off by remarkable plays. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to There's enough depth to get by. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Head coach Bill Cowher would get Super Bowl redemption the next decade, but this 115 team was pretty great all around. Just when the Falcons appeared to have a team set to contend for a playoff berth in 2021, Atlanta traded Julio Jonesto the Titans for draft picks. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. Carolina Panthers +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total), The Panthers were a fantastic 8-4 against the spread as an underdog last year, and theyre going to be underdogs frequently again this year. Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock Im buying low.. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). There was a reason the Colts were heavily favored going into the big game: The Jets were not all that good. The game was a blowout but did give us one of the most iconic moments in Super Bowl history: Don Beebe chasing down a prematurely celebrating Leon Lett. Seattle Seahawks +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Will we see the first-half Seahawks (6-1, 34 points per game! With a hostage crisis in Iran taking attention away from the game, the Raiders and Eagles made sure Americans too concerned to tune into a football game didnt miss much. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Dick Vermeil's boys just missed out on the Lombardi Trophy with one bad day. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. Stroud showed love to Justin Fields when explaining why he doesn't the Bears to draft him: 'That's his team', The Red Sox found a loophole in the MLB shift ban and it stinks for Joey Gallo, Survivor 44: Meet the castaways who will compete for $1 million in Fiji, Mets fans hilariously embraced basketball tactics to confuse players on the pitch clock, The Warriors left Russell Westbrook ridiculously wide open and it worked to perfection, Watch: Man tries feeding bison near Yellowstone; it doesnt go well, 2023 NFL Combine Winners Day 1: Blazing-fast DTs give the Bears plenty to consider, Ranking all 32 NFL teams' helmet logos, from worst to best, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Yet I can see the defense making a Washington-type leap, and the offensive weapons are there for whoever wins the starting job. The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. What should have been a great quarterback matchup Marino vs. Montana turned into a blowout as the Dolphins gunslinger couldnt keep up with the 49ers surgeon. The New York team that was crowned champion was far from elite. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. The NFL regular season begins in just days. With the best defense in the game, this 124 Steelers team could not stop a hot road team in the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. Kam Chancellor should have been MVP. Why? It was a sloppy game that was marred by questionable refereeing, but Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis finally winning a Lombardi Trophy thanks to Willie Parkers record-setting touchdown run and Hines Ward throwing for a score made this a memorable Super Bowl. This isn't just about winning the closely contested division, though. This team just wasn't ready yet. Andy Reids never-ending two-minute drill robbed us of what could have been an exciting ending. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels. It also gave us the first and only Super Bowl blackout. The team that benefited from Norwood's egregious error, the New York Giants, was not particularly exceptional. Their defense only gave up 9.5 points per game in a 14-game season. Is the offensive line good enough to protect Burrow from getting hurt again? I did not mean to rhyme there. Jeremy Fowler polled a panel of more than 50 coaches, execs, scouts and players to come up with top-10 rankings for 2021: Edge | Interior DL | LB The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. I much prefer the Eagles to maybe sneak into the playoffs, as their only road game this season against a playoff team from last year is at Washington on Jan. 2. The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. The 1970s Steelers gave us one last entertaining Super Bowl before its dynasty ended. Just how goofy was this game? With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. W. 23-20. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. The most interesting thing about this Super Bowl remains Hank Strams micd up footage. One yard away from not even being on this list, the 133 Titans were solid. They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. However, New York went just 10-6 in the regular season. Top 5 in both points for and against, the Vikings 10-win record kept them from being higher on this list. Tom Brady led the offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to score 36.8 points per game. Adding a consistent pass rush will make this team more competitive, but competing for a Super Bowl appears to be years away. They have a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, and rookie QB.. Brown, setting the stage for Jones to have a huge first season in Tennessee. Chicago Bears +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. Let's dive into the 2021 FPI projections with the 10 biggest takeaways. Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. Buffalo actually led going into halftime before being outscored 21-0 in the second half. This should have been a great game. Over the past three years, Cousins is seventh in passer rating (103.6), second in completion percentage (69.03), fifth in passing touchdowns (91), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.77). Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team. 55) Super Bowl XLVIII (2013) The 2013 Seahawks were able to take advantage of this game to solidify themselves as an all-time NFL defense. Denver has eight games against FPI's bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. They're returning the 2020 MVP and had the league's most efficient offense last year -- yes, even better than Kansas City's. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. The market is super high on Buffalo theyre only underdogs in two games, vs Tampa and KC but there likely will be some form of regression. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady & Co. are projected to be the No. The Texans did finish 4-12 last season, even as Watson reached career highs in completion percentage (70.2), passing yards (4,823), touchdown passes (33). 2) The AFC North is a filthy, disgusting mosh pit whence nobody comes out alive. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. Again, FPI doesn't think the division is much-improved. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. The Jaguars and Jets are back-to-back in FPI's rankings -- at Nos. The Broncos could muster only 35 net passing yards. This was actually the closest one they played. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. The Jaguars are going to be better than the 1-15 team that played last year, and could actually contend for eight or nine wins if the defense becomes a top 20 unit (ranked 31st in points and yards allowed in 2020). Defense wins championshipsor at least they should. When thinking about the 1990 season, it is hard to conjure up images of anything other than Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood missing a potential Super Bowl-winning kick. That they have to play each other twice and are vying for the same divisional crown are limiting factors when it comes to win total and a chance to earn the coveted top seed in the AFC. They started 1-7, fought back into playoff contention, and cratered down the stretch behind backup QB Colt McCoy.. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. Reporting on what you care about. Historically, those are difficult to duplicate.. XFL Week 3 preview: Can AJ McCarron, Battlehawks continue their fourth-quarter heroics? Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. Their defense back in the day was shutting teams down and they had great leadership in Fran Tarkenton. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. The Cowboys first Super Bowl win was a snooze-fest. Ill assume you didnt watch the Jacksonville Jaguars +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total), "Dont tell me what you think tell me whats in your portfolio. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Oh, and they had Terrell Owens, who was a superstar. Sure, but it did not make for an entertaining game up until the end. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. Matt Stafford, on the other hand, is learning a new offense, albeit with a smart coach and talented skill players. San Francisco finished the regular season at just 10-6, and the leading receiver was none other than Roger Craig. With quarterback Dak Prescott back and the possibility of an offensive line returned to full strength, the Cowboys are the division favorites with a 45% shot to win it. The Rams are firmly in the mix this year. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. NFL fans would have to get used that kind of ending. But itll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before Halloween. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight.. Denver Broncos +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Yes, this is irrationally high. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! 9. The agony of defeat. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. This unit -- like the offense -- has the potential to be an elite group. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has to commit to running the ball besides using Murray on designed carries, or else Arizona will experience the same second-half swoon as last year. Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. ONCE. Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020). The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. Aaron Rodgers capped off a brilliant playoff run with a masterful performance against one of the leagues best defenses. Ask Dan Marino, who went to one. Because there is a salary cap. When teams win the players want raises forcing teams to lose some players. This is what is happening to Green Bay an Los Angeles could put itself in position to contend for a playoff spot. If the Kansas City Chiefs didn't have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid, the Bills would have reached their first Super Bowl in 27 years. They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week. Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. Along with quarterback Earl Morrall, the Colts defense was the best in the league, only giving up 10.3 points per game. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.). However, these NFL teams should not be tossed aside because they lost the Super Bowl. They had an unimpressive 115 record, but the 2002 Raiders were a well-balanced, finely tuned machine.