This way, we can use these anomalies as an indicator to better understand the current state of the global climate system and its seasonal development. The rest of the United States and eastern Canada are expected to see less snowfall in the early spring. The notably small sea surface temperature differences between the wet and dry groups indicate that the sea surface temperature pattern plays a very minor role in the Southwest precipitation differences during La Nia, according to the climate model. Precipitation was slightly lower than normal. That doesnt mean that the different flavors of La Nia cannot be important for Southwest U.S. precipitation, and its worth trying to better understand the simulated La Nia precipitation variations. During the meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28) of 2022-23, average temperatures ranged from 16.7F at Medford, WI (COOP) to 25.7F at Boscobel Airport, WI (ASOS). is favored for the Southwest, eastern areas of the Great Basin, as well as parts of the central and southern Rockies. website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. All good scientific studies note their limitations, and this analysis carries some caveats that are familiar to most climate scientists. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 10:32. After this, the December Full Moon will fall on December 19 and the Winter Solstice - marking the shortest day of the year - will occur on December 21. Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored in the Southwestern United States, across the Southeastern states, and along the Atlantic coast. Starting with the seasonal average, we see below-average snowfall over most of Europe, which is indicative of a high-pressure dominant pattern. March came in like a lion, indeed. This is a reflection of the pressure changes in the latest model forecast. Long-range weather forecasting is not easy, and there are a lot of factors that impact seasonal climate. WARNING: Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. Its interesting to note that the La Nia dry signal over the Southwest U.S. appears to be a little more robust in February-March than December-January, as 15 of the 21 events classified as La Nia in December-February had drier-than-average conditions in February-March. (Please understand we are not monitoring the blog 24/7.). Anywhere. The problem with this approach, however, is that our record of reliable observations is just too short to slice and dice the data in this way. Probably the coupling of weak Polar vortex with the recurrent PV stratospheric warming has something to do with the Southward (equator-wise) migration of Atmospheric wet Rivers in mid to late winter , this last point is well-documented in many physical science papers that weak polar vortex post SSW events tend to measure more equator-wise migration of the Jetstream causing these atmospheric rivers to bring wetter than normal events to California and many mediterranean-like climates in the northern hemisphere late winter. Chris Bilbrey, a forecaster with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, digs a pit with Rebecca Hodgetts, southern mountains lead . But, with varying levels of success, they can paint a broad picture of how hot or cold or wet or dry different parts of the country may be compared to average. How will the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption play into the forecast? January snowfall forecast shows a similar pattern, with more snowfall over much of southern Canada and the northern half of the United States. More U. S. drought in a second-year La Nia? (Head to footnote 6 for all the gory math details.). Comments must be on-topic; free of profanity, name-calling, or ad-hominem attacks; and cannot repeat misinformation about climate that has been widely debunked by authoritative sources. The December snowfall forecast shows some areas with more snowfall over northern, western, and central parts. Rick Wiley / Arizona Daily Star Facebook Often with the cold easterly winds, and the air travelling over so much dry land, there is very little moisture in it to form the snow and we end up with some crisp winter sunshine instead. But note more snowfall potential remains over the u pper Midwest. Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years. That means forecasts will bust from time to time, and success or failure must be evaluated over many forecasts. More snowfall is still forecast in the upper Midwest, with some hints of more snowfall around the central Great Lakes. Hot Chocolate Warning In The East and South Understanding what teleconnection patterns we can and cannot predict on these seasonal time scales remains a big research topic. In the Southeast, the Farmers Almanacs expected East Coast storms are more likely to bring rain, although chilly conditions that enter the region in January could cause wintry precipitation there, as well. South West England weather - Met Office South West England weather South West England Bristol 6 Plymouth 8 Bournemouth 7 Exeter 6 Bath 5 Taunton 6 Barnstaple 6 Camborne 6 Dorchester 6. I don't have an explanation except to speculate that the multidecadal enhancement of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (like what was described in this post) is helping to keep the tropical atmosphere more La Nina-like even when the typical ENSO sea surface temperature indexes are deviating from typical La Nina values. The question is, whats different about those years? Warmer and drier winter weather prevails over the southern states. I'm pleased you're joining us today to discuss the Southwest Gas Holdings fourth quarter and year-end results. Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. AccuWeather forecasters are predicting a more active severe thunderstorm season in the southeastern states during the winter months because of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures. You can see that jet stream redirection in the image below. Staying largely cloudy into the evening but some clear spells could develop overnight where temperatures will drop and some frost could develop. The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November. It looks like an interesting study, and it relates to last month's blog post on the discrepancy between observed and modeled Pacific sea surface temperature trends. Average DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) for all La Nia events from 1951-2020, defined as La Nia occurring in DecemberFebruary. Annual snowfall in the Twin Cities based on the modern 30-year average (1981-2010) is 54 inches, so AccuWeather's range falls between 40 and 67 inches. The more forecast data you can look at, the better idea you can get about the expected weather patterns. Submitted by Clara Deser on Sat, 02/25/2023 - 11:39. Enjoy summer while you can, folks because Ontario's 2022 winter weather forecast is shaping up to be a real drag. In the East, the almanac predicts above-average snowfall for a vast area, from North Carolina to central New England to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Great Plains. The almanac forecasts cold and wet conditions down even into Florida, with the worst of the cold forecast for January. Minnesota DNR. But the main focus is on global long-range weather forecasting systems. I did just one set of analyses focused on one particular region with one climate model, and thats why I stated up front that this is just the start of the conversation. The signal-to-noise ratio is typically calculated as a ratio of variances, which are the squares of the standard deviations. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and . NOAAs seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. This is mainly a result of warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in late Winter by UKMO in the south/southwest. A major weather divide is int he forecast. Whether you are a fan of snow, here is the latest roundup of what meteorologists are saying about the weather in the coming months. Unfortunately, a dry winter is predicted for the Southwest states, which won't help the drought situation. Based on the Farmer's Almanac winter 2022-2023 predictions for the upcoming chilly season, the report shows that . and last updated 5:53 AM, Mar 01, 2023. While AccuWeather forecasts that snowfall will be suppressed, the company does not necessarily expect overall precipitation to be below normal as well, with milder temperatures leading to several all-rain events this winter. This figure indicates that the Southwest December-January precipitation was below the 1991-2020 average in 13 of 21 La Nias during the period. The Farmers Almanac says temperatures in the Southeast and Northeast should become milder in February, though. Everything I read details how little we understand and have modeled such an occurrence- a gigantic and long-lasting (it will take years for the extra water vapor to dissipate) change to something that we think of (and model) as utterly constant and stable. Glasgow and Belfast are predicted to reach 16C, although this could be followed by a period of more typical October weather. This is the part of the atmosphere where the air temperature is at 0C. Video. I confirm from a regional point of view here in Jordan we had terribly dry December-January and the start of February was highlight with torrential rains . Despite the headlines, the winter weather predictions from both publications have a lot of similarities this year. As that post notes, it's critical to understand the source of the mismatch models and observations (natural variability or model error or both? Given the distribution of snowfall anomalies, it shows a likely low-pressure zone over northwestern Europe. With CAGRs of 17.4% and 12.7%, respectively, over the past 10 years. Published March 3, 2023 11:09 a.m. PST. Question: Will you also be writing a paper about this? So what exactly does this mean for the winter weather patterns and snowfall potential? AccuWeather meteorologists break down which areas will. These temperatures ranged from near-normal to 4F warmer than normal. Finally, the persistently positive SOI and MEI is an interesting observation. Drought improvement in the Southwest continues As of July 26, 2022, over 50% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, with almost 20% in the two worst categories, extreme and exceptional drought (D3-4), a slight increase since late June. Several inches of wet snow are likely. Have a comment on this page? Winter Forecast 2022-2023, Meteorologist Chris Tomer 5 months ago Winter Camping in Snowfall - Forester Tree Hug Tarp Setup - Spit Roast - Bushcraft Bowsaw Swedwoods 240K views 3 weeks ago. As the figure above shows, much of the western U.S. was pummeled from late December through mid-January, as a series of nine atmospheric rivers dumped more than a seasons worth of rain and snow in a few short weeks. On average across the UK, there are only 15.6 days a year when snow is on the ground, though this rises to 26.2 days for Scotland alone. The figure above shows the sea surface temperature differences between the high- and low-precipitation groups in the SPEAR simulations. Of course, as with all these predictions, they are just indications of the long-range patterns. We know that all La Nias feature below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, by definition, but the details vary from event to event. Transcript (PDF): October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Integrated Drought Information System. More precipitation is typical over the northwestern United States, the Great Lakes, and parts of the northeast. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. The video covers both precipitation and temperature predictions, polar vortex, arctic blasts, typical snowfall, and regions that will see wamr and dry conditions for winter 2022 - 2023. It calls for snowfall to be above normal toward the East Coast as well. The February snowfall forecast indicates continued potential over the northern parts of Europe. And did tropical sea surface temperatures contribute? La Nina does change the weather globally, but apart from the direct influence over North America, places like Europe have many other factors in circulation before any La Nina influence can spread this far. We have seen a stronger-than-normal jet stream throughout the Southwest, which has brought the wetter conditions this winter. The season will be relatively normal this year. It also shows some snow scenarios over the eastern and southeastern United States. For example, we can see a list of teleconnection patterns monitored by CPC, and I believe that only the PNA and TNH have a strong connection to ENSO among that list. So what's in store? This results in 21 values covering all historical La Nias during the period for which the noise of chaotic weather variability has been largely averaged out. Alongside the festive buzz and Mariah Carey's unstoppable annual return to relevance, December has decided to throw us a notably unusual weather pattern.